(TOI)
KOLKATA: By the time electioneering for the 16th Lok Sabha polls draws to a close on May 10, Narendra Modi would have finished his sixth tour of West Bengal. Even in the unlikeliest of places, BJP has sniffed blood. From Alipur Duar amid the lush green tea plantations of the Dooars in the north to the shores of the Bay of Bengal in the south, the Lotus blossoms unmistakably as the 'X' factor, surprising and shocking all other contenders in a state habitually polarized between various shades of the Left and the two avatars of Congress.
Hamstrung by a rickety organization and bereft of credible leadership, BJP in West Bengal has always had a marginal political existence, never enjoying more than 5-6 % of popular votes in any election. It won two parliamentary seats in the 1999 Lok Sabha polls in alliance with Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress, a feat the party could not repeat in any of the succeeding elections. The party's vote share soared close to 12% in the 1991 elections when the excitement and frenzy of the Ayodhya movement and Advani's Rath Yatra swayed a sizeable number of voters in this partitioned state. But the party, despite an unprecedented windfall, drew a blank. Then, BJP hit its usual nadir every time it chose to go it alone.
This time round, too, it is not a case of 'ghar ghar Modi' in Bengal; no pollster has given the party more than one seat. Yet, all pollsters predict that BJP's popular vote share might reach an alltime high, shooting up to more than 15-16 %, giving the party a credible toehold in the state for the first time. This would also mean the emergence of BJP as the third largest political force in Bengal, relegating Congress almost to the oblivion. If BJP comes to power in the Centre and Modi becomes the Prime Minister, the party may legitimately hope to add to its ranks enough supporters to be able to play a critical role in the state assembly elections due exactly after two years. West Bengal politics seems poised for a paradigm shift, that would see new equations and alignments dovetailing a new, resurgent, yet an hitherto-unknown player.
None of BJP's three major contenders, TMC, the Left and Congress, took this possible scenario into account while preparing their electoral strategy in the state. Least of all Mamata Banerjee, who took the gamble of fielding her own party candidates in all the 42 constituencies in the state, breaking away from the old tradition of allying with either Congress or the NDA. The BJP's central leadership sent feelers and persistent overtures believing Mamata to be their old and natural ally as she was opposed to both Congress and the Left.
In his first election rally in the state, held audaciously but successfully at Kolkata's historic Brigade Parade Grounds, Modi offered Didi the proverbial 'Dilli ka laddu' while Rajnath Singh in an outrageously placatory note almost assured her that BJP would concede to her long pending demand of a moratorium on the state's accumulated loans.
Yet, Didi refused to bite the bullet keeping in mind the importance of minority votes and the disastrous impact an alliance with the BJP would have on her battle prospects for the state in 2016. She could hardly imagine , like all others in the state, that the shadow of Modi would continue to lengthen as days rolled by to upset her poll plans and calculations. Today, in every election meeting she launches a frontal attack against BJP, taking pot shots at Modi by calling him 'dangar mukh' , the face of a ghastly riot.
Modi too returns the fire shedding past inhibitions and hope. Mamata based her calculations on the party's stunning performance at the panchayat polls held less than a year ago when TMC garnered more than 43% of popular votes in rural areas. Even a minor erosion, she thought, would not create any major difference to her prospects of sweeping virtually every corner of the state barring the three districts of Murshidabad, Malda and North Dinajpore , counting for only six seats, where Congress still manages to hold its own. The spectre of Modi and his repeated sojourns to the state with successful and heavily attended rallies seem to haunt 'Didi' more than the effects of the Saradha scam.
Modi may or may not emerge as a spoilsport only for Mamata and her party. There are visible signs in many places of Left supporters leaning towards BJP, and buying the party's argument for the need of a stable and effective government at the Centre. A section of Bengali refugees and tribals, for long tried and tested supporters of the Left, may now find the new option more viable and acceptable. Many among them now want to give Modi a chance just for the fun of inviting change. Their new refrain: Ebar chupchap fule chhap, kintu chhotor badole baro ful (This time round too we will opt for the flower, but for the bigger one — or Lotus).
KOLKATA: By the time electioneering for the 16th Lok Sabha polls draws to a close on May 10, Narendra Modi would have finished his sixth tour of West Bengal. Even in the unlikeliest of places, BJP has sniffed blood. From Alipur Duar amid the lush green tea plantations of the Dooars in the north to the shores of the Bay of Bengal in the south, the Lotus blossoms unmistakably as the 'X' factor, surprising and shocking all other contenders in a state habitually polarized between various shades of the Left and the two avatars of Congress.
Hamstrung by a rickety organization and bereft of credible leadership, BJP in West Bengal has always had a marginal political existence, never enjoying more than 5-6 % of popular votes in any election. It won two parliamentary seats in the 1999 Lok Sabha polls in alliance with Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress, a feat the party could not repeat in any of the succeeding elections. The party's vote share soared close to 12% in the 1991 elections when the excitement and frenzy of the Ayodhya movement and Advani's Rath Yatra swayed a sizeable number of voters in this partitioned state. But the party, despite an unprecedented windfall, drew a blank. Then, BJP hit its usual nadir every time it chose to go it alone.
This time round, too, it is not a case of 'ghar ghar Modi' in Bengal; no pollster has given the party more than one seat. Yet, all pollsters predict that BJP's popular vote share might reach an alltime high, shooting up to more than 15-16 %, giving the party a credible toehold in the state for the first time. This would also mean the emergence of BJP as the third largest political force in Bengal, relegating Congress almost to the oblivion. If BJP comes to power in the Centre and Modi becomes the Prime Minister, the party may legitimately hope to add to its ranks enough supporters to be able to play a critical role in the state assembly elections due exactly after two years. West Bengal politics seems poised for a paradigm shift, that would see new equations and alignments dovetailing a new, resurgent, yet an hitherto-unknown player.
None of BJP's three major contenders, TMC, the Left and Congress, took this possible scenario into account while preparing their electoral strategy in the state. Least of all Mamata Banerjee, who took the gamble of fielding her own party candidates in all the 42 constituencies in the state, breaking away from the old tradition of allying with either Congress or the NDA. The BJP's central leadership sent feelers and persistent overtures believing Mamata to be their old and natural ally as she was opposed to both Congress and the Left.
In his first election rally in the state, held audaciously but successfully at Kolkata's historic Brigade Parade Grounds, Modi offered Didi the proverbial 'Dilli ka laddu' while Rajnath Singh in an outrageously placatory note almost assured her that BJP would concede to her long pending demand of a moratorium on the state's accumulated loans.
Yet, Didi refused to bite the bullet keeping in mind the importance of minority votes and the disastrous impact an alliance with the BJP would have on her battle prospects for the state in 2016. She could hardly imagine , like all others in the state, that the shadow of Modi would continue to lengthen as days rolled by to upset her poll plans and calculations. Today, in every election meeting she launches a frontal attack against BJP, taking pot shots at Modi by calling him 'dangar mukh' , the face of a ghastly riot.
Modi too returns the fire shedding past inhibitions and hope. Mamata based her calculations on the party's stunning performance at the panchayat polls held less than a year ago when TMC garnered more than 43% of popular votes in rural areas. Even a minor erosion, she thought, would not create any major difference to her prospects of sweeping virtually every corner of the state barring the three districts of Murshidabad, Malda and North Dinajpore , counting for only six seats, where Congress still manages to hold its own. The spectre of Modi and his repeated sojourns to the state with successful and heavily attended rallies seem to haunt 'Didi' more than the effects of the Saradha scam.
Modi may or may not emerge as a spoilsport only for Mamata and her party. There are visible signs in many places of Left supporters leaning towards BJP, and buying the party's argument for the need of a stable and effective government at the Centre. A section of Bengali refugees and tribals, for long tried and tested supporters of the Left, may now find the new option more viable and acceptable. Many among them now want to give Modi a chance just for the fun of inviting change. Their new refrain: Ebar chupchap fule chhap, kintu chhotor badole baro ful (This time round too we will opt for the flower, but for the bigger one — or Lotus).
No comments:
Post a Comment