Russia in Syria- Attack Helicopters Hit ISIS Fighters in Idlib

http://www.newsbharati.com/ Russia in Syria- Attack Helicopters Hit ISIS Fighters in Idlib

Confirmation of Attack on Russian Jet May Strengthen Putin’s Resolve in Syria

Moscow The main bell in St. Isaac’s Cathedral in St. Petersburg tolled 224 times on Sunday, once for each victim of the destruction of a Russian charter flight in Egypt a week ago.



Although President Vladimir V. Putin and his aides at first indignantly dismissed suspicions of a terrorist act, the Kremlin has since then clearly come to grips with the idea that a bomb was probably involved in the crash: Late Friday it suspended all travel by Russians to Egypt, and initiated an emergency airlift that by Sunday had repatriated 11,000 Russians, by government count.



Should an attack be confirmed — and particularly if the Islamic State’s claim that it bombed the plane in revenge for Russia’s intervention in Syria turns out to be true — analysts and other experts expect that it will only strengthen Mr. Putin’s resolve to become more deeply involved in the Middle East.



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First, Mr. Putin said the Russian Air Force’s bombing campaign in Syria was partly intended to help dismantle the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, which includes up to 7,000 fighters from Russia and the former Soviet Union. One worry is that they might return to wage a terrorist war in Russia. An attack against a civilian airliner would confirm that Russian interests were already being threatened — and might cause Russia to begin targeting the Islamic State more aggressively.



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Mourners at the service. Since the attack, the Kremlin has suspended all travel by Russians to Egypt and repatriated 11,000. Credit Elena Ignatyeva/Associated Press

Second, Mr. Putin’s Syrian intervention has been taken as an attempt to show that Russia is again become a global power capable of tackling the world’s most intractable problems. Reversing course after the first setback, however violent, would undercut that image.



Third, the Russian leader has painted the West, and the United States in particular, as quick to abandon its Arab allies since the dawn of the Arab Spring in 2011 and its chaotic aftermath. Syria, now beleaguered, has been Russia’s only Arab ally for decades, but Mr. Putin has also been courting President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt. A terrorist attack by enemies of the Egyptian government will most likely strengthen, not diminish, that effort.



Ever since the Russian Air Force began bombing targets in Syria at the end of September, Mr. Putin has repeated the theme that it is better to attack terrorists on their home territory. His response in the face of any terrorist attack will probably be to double down, analysts said. But he is still likely to avoid committing ground forces, which polls show remains highly unpopular among Russians.



“If it was a terrorist act, that pushes the stakes higher and makes this Syria operation more costly,” said Vladimir Frolov, a political analyst. “It also proves the point that terrorists have to be destroyed before they come to our own land.”

The problem, he said, is that “Russia’s current strategy cannot defeat the Islamic State.”Russia deployed more than 50 combat aircraft in Syria, along with some 4,000 troops. About half of them were already there as advisers and technicians, while most of the rest are ground forces needed to protect the pilots and various bases.



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The strategy as laid out by Mr. Putin was that the Russian Air Force would bolster the weakened military forces under President Bashar al-Assad, allowing them to strengthen their hold on Syria and then to take on the Islamic State strongholds in western Syria, using Syrian and allied ground forces.



Alexei Makarkin, an analyst at the Center for Political Technologies, saw two main options for Russia. One, he said, was that “Russia can intensify the Syria operation, send more troops and volunteers to support Assad.” That move, he said, would probably worsen already strained ties with the West.