Russia in Syria- Tanks Shelling ISIS Positions Aleppo

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As Iran Joins Vienna talks on Syria War

after talks on Syria in Vienna on October 30th between allies and foes of President Bashar al-Assad including America, Saudi Arabia, Russia and, for the first time, Iran. No one walked out, even though Iran backs Mr Assad and Saudi Arabia is one of the main backers of anti-Assad rebel groups, as well as Iran’s chief rival in the region.



At first glance the nine-point statement put out at the end looks good, too. It pledges to work for a ceasefire and commits the parties to an UN-led transition in which Syrians, including the diaspora, elect their leaders. The powers will meet again within two weeks’ time to discuss it further.



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Yet no party hid the fact that there was no agreement on the fate of Mr Assad, one of the main points of contention. Speaking at a security conference in Bahrain organised by IISS, a British think-tank, Adel al-Jubair, the Saudi foreign minister, restated the Saudi belief that peace could not be achieved as long as Mr Assad stayed in power: "He should leave this afternoon. The sooner the better." He also insisted that Iranian forces would have to be withdrawn as part of any agreement." If progress is not made, he said Saudi Arabia will step up support for "moderate" rebels, including the delivery of more lethal weapons—though he did not spell out what those might be.



Of late America had appeared to modify its position on Mr Assad by saying he could stay for six months rather than requiring that he step down before any transition begins. It sounded like a compromise had been made when reports circulated that Iran had agreed to a limitation of six months for Mr Assad.



Yet Iran quickly contradicted the news, denying that it had agreed to any time-frame, stressing that only the Syrian people could decide—the line Iran and Russia have long stuck to. Iran and Russia would like to see early polls, despite Mr Assad’s having been “elected” to a seven-year term in 2014. They are convinced that he would win, without any of the rigging or gerrymandering that tends to accompany Syrian ballots. Holding any election in war-torn Syria will be fraught with difficulty, of course. To be accepted as credible, the millions of Syrians who have fled the country would have to be persuaded to vote.



Although all the powers, parties to Syria’s war and otherwise (with the potential exception of Russia) seem more united now in the desire to end the four-and-a-half-year conflict, it is apparent that that is not at any cost. The refugee crisis has worsened, both in the region and for those trekking to Europe, not least since Russia intervened. All are worried about Islamic State (IS).



Yet both Russia and Iran do not like the idea of regime change, fearful of it on their own turf. Russia wants to assert its role as a global power. Iran’s red line is maintaining a route to ship weapons to Hizbullah, its proxy in Lebanon.



Despite its nuclear deal with America, Iran remains suspicious of the Great Satan. Many Iranian officials say America is only pretending to fight IS, pointing to the slow progress of the coalition, and instead prefers keeping them on hand as a tool with which to threaten the Islamic Republic. Having given up its nuclear card for now, Iran may be more rather than less obstinate on Syria.



Meanwhile, on the same day, America revealed it was sending up to 50 special-forces troops into northern Syria to help with a planned offensive against Islamic State (IS) in their stronghold to the east. Russia criticised their deployment, arguing it will turn the Syrian conflict into a proxy war. America has upped its game since Russia waded into Syria in September. Earlier in October America said it had dropped supplies to rebels in the north and has emphasised that it will increase its support to the groups it backs.



In any case, much of what ended up in the statement repeats points made in UN talks back in 2012. Since then the war has got far bloodier, with the death toll at over 250,000 and some 11m people displaced within and without the country’s borders. And as many Syrians have pointed out, neither the Syrian regime nor the fragmented opposition were invited to the talks. It will be a long time before the guns fall silent, but getting so many of the parties in one room might be a start.